Volume was thin, volatility high, and despite all the excitement over the LinkedIn IPO, the averages finished little changed from the levels of last week. This is a market that requires patience and fortitude.
By now, you probably have had your fill of LinkedIn stories. For those who haven't caught up, all you need to know is that the professional networking company went public on Thursday at $45 a share and proceeded to more than double by the end of the day. It now has a valuation greater than one-third of the companies that make up the S&P 500 Index, making billionaires of its founder and many of its staff.
A few analysts expect LinkedIn's IPO to be just a taste of things to come. The big four in this space - Facebook, Groupon, Twitter and Zynga - haven't set a date for accessing the public markets but are all making noises that suggest future IPOs. Some hope that LinkedIn will revitalize the IPO market, which has been lackluster at best so far this year.
Other analysts fret that the overnight $9 billion market capitalization of LinkedIn is reminiscent of the companies that went public during the Dot-Com boom. And we all know how that turned out. I suspect that, like the stock market in general, the price action of LinkedIn simply reflects the fact that too much money is chasing too few investments led by the "hot money" folks who have abandoned commodities and are looking for the next big play.
At some point, rational behavior will prevail and LinkedIn will trade at a valuation that will better reflect its fundamentals. Until then, I will watch the show from the sidelines.
As for commodities, the prices of silver, gold, grains and base metals are trading like yo-yos in the hands of elephants. In the energy space, oil is fast closing in on $95 a barrel. Don't try to be a hero and trade these price movements. Leave that to the professionals, who, by the way, are losing as much as they're making in these markets. There will come a time when commodities finish falling. Usually, prices will tend to flatten out and volumes dry up at the bottom. That will be the time to look at these investments once again.
In the meantime, the dollar's strength is hurting U.S. stocks as is Euroland's continued difficulties with the PIGS economies. Friday it was the turn of the Greeks, whose sovereign debt rating was reduced further to "B-plus, highly speculative." It appears that default is inevitable for Greece, (something I predicted would happen over a year ago). The trick will be to engineer a default without actually labeling it as such, something bankers and politicians are quite adept at doing after the last few years.
As for the markets, they remain in up trends. The "sell in May and go away" crowd would have you abandon the markets until October. Although the May Play works some of the time, I don't believe this year will be one of them. Stick with the markets and have patience.
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In hindsight, if the underwriters had know the demand for this stock prior to the deal than the Journal is right, it could have been priced higher. However, judging real demand for IPOs is an art, not a science, and in this case, given the unique nature of LinkedIn, evryone was surprised. I suspect the next IPO of this kind will be priced more accurately.
I have a question for you. If I have a stockbroker at a major brokerage firm like Smith Barney am I a client?Is my broker my fiduciary, as if he were my attorney for example?
In real estate when I list a property for sale, they ARE my client.
Thank you for your response.
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.